信贷管制、隐性契约与贷款利率变相市场化——现象与解释

本文将视角聚焦于利率市场化改革之前,重点研究金融抑制对银企信贷契约的异化。研究发现,在金融抑制背景下银企之间存在以留存贷款为表现的隐性契约,用以帮助银行在满足管制要求的同时追求利润最大化。本文对这一现象进行了理论分析与实证检验,发现隐性契约的发生与否会随着货币政策、企业特征等因素的改变而有所差异,这在一定程度上起到了利率变相市场化的作用。进一步研究则发现,这一隐性契约对企业价值产生了负向影响。     

The Improbability of Fraud in Accounting for Derivatives: A Case Study on the Boundaries of Financial Reporting Compliance

ABSTRACT

This study responds to recent calls in the literature to examine fraud using detailed case studies, extending knowledge beyond individual incentives and capital market reactions towards a more contextualized understanding of the concept. We use an institutional logics perspective to challenge existing assumptions about a universally valid meaning of compliance, fraud, and faithful representation. Presenting the case of the Swedish bank HQ, we show how the interpretation of the accounting standard for option measurement varies across different enforcement bodies because the meaning of compliance is socially negotiated across the institutional logics of markets, financial regulation, and law. The independent decision-making of the different enforcement bodies leads to a systematic variation in the interpretation of principles-based accounting standards without ultimate coordination. To define consistent boundaries of compliance across institutional logics, and thus, to distinguish between fraud and allowable managerial discretion becomes problematic. Faithful representation, in turn, cannot be understood as financial statements reflecting a correct value or as financial statements being prepared in accordance with acceptable practice, as suggested in the earlier literature. Instead, faithful representation itself becomes a contextually bound concept, which can only be defined within an institutional logic.     

系统性金融风险的历史考察与防范对策

深入学习习近平在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上的报告，在考察20世纪以来的12次金融危机的基础上，对系统性金融风险发生的根源进行了研究，并结合我国当前系统性金融风险面临的形势，提出了防范系统性金融风险的对策建议。研究表明，将过去100多年引发金融危机的系统性金融风险的根源与我国当前的金融形势进行比较分析，可以发现我国面临的系统性金融风险形势十分严峻，必须在党的领导下，采取打击金融腐败、适当收紧货币政策、完善金融监管体系、维护币值稳定、加强金融科技监管等相关政策来防止系统金融风险的发生。     

Consumption as a social integration strategy in times of crisis: The case of vulnerable households

In this article, we focus on consumption in a context of economic hardship. From an empirical perspective, and using a qualitative methodology, we show how disadvantaged individuals and households maintain a level of consumption commensurate with the society in which they are integrated through a type of consumption conceived of here as “resilient”. Resilient consumption is characterized by being a type of expenditure oriented towards maintaining the role of consumer, that is, maintaining a minimum level of purchasing power, modifying to this end both the level and the structure of consumption, both of which are key elements in the resilience process. We identify five main strategies used by households that modify and restructure the consumption of basic goods and necessities in response to economic hardship. Key resilient consumption strategies include: reduction (cutting down on spending), substitution (replacement of one difficulty with another), compensation (pseudo‐consumption or reduced usage), transference (meta‐resilience) and integration (reinterpretation of difficulties as opportunities). We conclude that although consumption is a naturally resilient behaviour, in a crisis context, resilient practices focus on maintaining acquisition capacity in spite of reduced income.     

The financial advice puzzle: The role of consumer heterogeneity in the advisor choice

We investigate motivational drivers of financial advisor use, accounting for investor heterogeneity, with the goal of helping institutions increase the use of financial advisor services. The results from a latent class choice model reveal two distinct segments that differ in their approach to the financial advice decision. While higher levels of risk tolerance, trust, and self-efficacy increase financial advice use for both segments, albeit at much higher propensities for Segment 1, personality only matters for Segment 1. Moreover, their regulatory focus differs with Segment 1 being promotion and Segment 2 being prevention focused. Using these results, we offer suggestions for marketing strategies.     

Between a rock and a hard place: Seizing the opportunity of demanding customers by means of frontline service behaviors

Service businesses are increasingly facing more demanding customers as a result of a shift in power from the service providers' side to the customers' side. Related literature predominantly examines the negative side of this ongoing trend, while overlooking the positive side. The major aim of this paper is to examine how frontline employees — investment account managers — deal with the ongoing increase in customer demandingness. To address this, we draw on adaptability performance theory to test the facilitating effect of frontline employees' post-transaction service behaviors (SBs) — diligence, inducements, information communication, sportsmanship, and empathy — as a means of adaptation to higher levels of customer demand. Findings indicate that frontline employees adapt most of their SBs' intensities to match customers' demands. The results show that some SBs actually increase the effectiveness and efficiency of frontline employees' service performance, leading to an increase in customer value and satisfaction. Customer value is found as a mediator in some of the relationships between SBs and customer satisfaction. Contrary to the conception of the negative outcomes of customer demandingness, service firms need to consider taking advantage of customer demandingness by stressing the role of frontline employees in adapting to customers’ demands.     

Bank Income Diversification,Asset Correlation and Systemic Risk

This paper explores whether the asset correlations among the non-interest activities of banks are the key causes for enhancing the bank diversification-systemic risk nexus. Our empirical evidence indicates that banks' income diversification significantly raises systemic risk. After removing those banks with high asset correlations, the effect of individual banks' diversification on banking systemic risk turns insignificant or even inverse. The results show that high asset correlations among banks could introduce bank failures, thereby leading to higher systemic risk in the financial sector.     

Corporate financial distress: The case of publicly listed firms in an emerging market economy

Occurrences of financial distress (FD) are not readily obvious yet can span several periods. This paper examines episodes of FD using industry‐relative (IR) firm‐/ accounting‐, market‐ and macro‐level information. Mixed logit regressions reveal that firm‐ and market‐based measures, as well as macro‐level variables explain the likelihood of FD in 263 publicly listed non‐banking firms in the Philippines during the period 1995 to 2018. Rates of identification of firms in financial distressed states of close to 69 percent are obtained at a cutoff probability of 0.30 in the model with time‐varying intercept and slope. This study shows the importance of recognizing heterogeneous firm behavior. The ability to more accurately predict the probability of FD and to determine the financial health of firms can help financial institutions in allocating funds and policy makers in predicting crises episodes.     

Do leveraged warrants prompt individuals to speculate on stock price reversals?

Using proprietary data on bank-issued knock-out warrants written on a stock index, we find that individual investors’ aggregate warrant portfolio speculates against the short-term trend of the index. We argue that contrarian trading is driven by the interaction of product design and investors’ preference for large leveraged positions. Investors tend to open larger positions whenever warrants offer higher leverage. As a result, investors open an aggregate long position when calls offer higher leverage than puts. Since knock-out leverages move systematically with the underlying, aggregate warrant positions become contrarian even if investors do not intend to speculate on reversals.     

违约与杠杆周期——一个带有救助的金融加速器模型

我国为应对2008年国际金融危机的冲击采取了一系列经济刺激政策,在发挥“稳增长”作用的同时,也在一定程度上导致我国企业部门杠杆水平快速上升,但与此同时,不良贷款率并没有随企业部门杠杆的上升而显著增加。为了解释企业部门违约与杠杆的周期特征,本文在金融加速器模型(Bernanke et al.,1999)基础上,引入政府对企业部门的违约救助机制,建立DSGE模型进行讨论。进一步地,本文还通过一个不合意的去杠杆政策试验表明,忽略资产价格稳定(或者说金融稳定)前提下的去杠杆政策,反而会使企业部门的杠杆和违约率同时上升到一个较高水平。最后,引入一个盯住预期资产价格的动态救助规则能够发挥稳定经济的作用,并提高社会福利水平。